3 highlights from our 1Q2025 Market Update

Crux’s quarterly market reports serve as updates to our industry-leading market intelligence reports. Based on a dataset of $30 billion in tax credit transactions, the 1Q2025 Market Update examines:

• Indicative quarterly pricing in the transferable tax credit market.
• Quarterly market trends, including an overview of the first quarter of 2025.
• The latest policy updates impacting the transferable tax credit market.
• A look ahead to what to expect in the rest of 2025.

The full report is exclusively available to Crux clients and partners, but we’re sharing three highlights below:

1. Market demand for 2024 tax credits is strong, and the market is competitive

For 2024 tax credits, Crux estimated $4 of demand for every $1 of investment tax credit (ITC) and $9 of demand for every $1 of production tax credit (PTC) throughout the first quarter. Larger credits or credits from investment-grade sellers are in particularly high demand. Demand for 2025 tax credits, so far, generally reflects seasonal trends observed in early 2024, and buy-side activity began accelerating in March and into April. 

2. Interest in manufacturing and nuclear tax credits remains robust

About 50% of commercial bids placed on Crux in 1Q2025 were for either advanced manufacturing or nuclear credit categories. Buyer interest in tax credits from newly eligible technologies accelerated in 2H2024, and that trend appears to be sustained into 2025. 

The market has also seen interest in new tax credit categories that became available earlier this year, including the §45Z clean fuel production tax credit and the technology-neutral clean electricity investment tax credit (§48E) and production tax credit (§45Y).

3. Pricing on 2024 tax credits is elevated, along with heightened demand

Crux observed average pricing for 2024 ITCs and PTCs has increased by 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, from 4Q2024. Pricing for 2025 ITCs has declined by 1.6% since 4Q2024. This decline is approximately in line with seasonal trends observed in 2024, which suggest that ITC prices for current-year credits can dip by 1.5–2.0% in the first quarter of a new credit year, and likely will increase through Q2 and into later 2025.

The 1Q2025 Market Update is available exclusively to Crux clients and partners. Contact us to get started on Crux today.